Bitcoin (BTC) may see a turnaround this weekend after six consecutive weekends of unfavorable returns, in keeping with Normal Chartered head of digital belongings analysis Geoffrey Kendrick.
In a analysis notice shared with CryptoSlate on Feb. 14, Kendrick highlighted Bitcoin’s latest sample of weak weekend value motion, with each weekend since early January posting unfavorable returns.
He attributed the declines to market-moving headlines, together with volatility tied to DeepSeek-related information in late January and tariff issues on Feb. 12.
Nevertheless, with macroeconomic situations bettering and US bond yields trending decrease, he sees a greater chance of optimistic weekend efficiency.
“Given now we have had the unhealthy information (as under re tariffs) and US 10Y yields are presently down on the week (and really importantly under 4.5%), I believe this weekend can be totally different.”
Market setup factors to restoration
Kendrick analyzed Bitcoin’s day-of-week efficiency in 2024, noting that Mondays and Fridays have sometimes been the strongest buying and selling days.
In distinction, weekend classes have been lackluster, probably exacerbated by decrease liquidity and risk-off sentiment amongst merchants.
He recommended {that a} small optimistic catalyst over the weekend may immediate renewed ETF inflows on Monday, serving to Bitcoin escape of its latest buying and selling vary. Kendrick famous:
“A small optimistic over the weekend can result in ETF shopping for Monday after per week of ETF outflows.”
He added that Bitcoin may then check key psychological ranges at $100,000 and $102,500 since it’s a “Giffen good in any case,” referencing the financial idea the place demand will increase as costs rise.
Regardless of latest weak point, Bitcoin has remained in an uptrend, gaining greater than 20% year-to-date.
Tariff uncertainty
Past Bitcoin’s technical outlook, Kendrick additionally mentioned broader macroeconomic developments, significantly the impression of US inflation information and shifting expectations round former President Donald Trump’s potential insurance policies.
US Treasury yields declined following a softer-than-expected Client Value Index (CPI) report earlier within the week and a weaker-than-expected Producer Value Index (PPI) studying on Feb. 14.
The ten-year Treasury yield, which traders intently watch as a gauge of borrowing prices and danger urge for food, remained under 4.5%, a degree Kendrick sees as constructive for digital belongings.
Based on the analyst:
“If newest headlines are to be believed, we’re previous unhealthy Trump from a tariff perspective, with reciprocal tariffs solely taking impact April 1.”
He additionally recommended that optimism round a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal may additional shift market sentiment. He famous:
“On the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, we could also be lastly shifting from unhealthy Trump to good Trump so far as danger belongings are involved.”
Kendrick reiterated his bullish stance on Bitcoin, suggesting that if these macro components maintain, the crypto might be on observe to hit $102,500 within the close to time period.
Primarily based on CryptoSlate information, Bitcoin was buying and selling at $97,348 as of press time, up 2% over the previous 24 hours.
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