The race to convey extra crypto belongings to the inventory market as ETFs could go away most caught on the sidelines, Galaxy Digital discovered.
Efforts to hurry up crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) approvals in the USA may very well sideline most tokens within the foreseeable future, Galaxy Digital’s analysis affiliate Lucas Tcheyan revealed in a current report. The brand new analysis estimates that solely 12 of the highest 100 belongings by market capitalization past BTC and ETH would make the minimize.
In late July, Cboe’s BZX Trade, Nasdaq, and NYSE Arca all filed 19b-4 types with the U.S. Securities and Trade Fee (SEC) to suggest itemizing requirements for crypto ETFs that may substitute at the moment’s case-by-case system.
The functions come because the SEC faces a pileup of 91 pending crypto ETF requests overlaying 24 tokens and several other index merchandise, per Galaxy’s report. And whereas the company’s remaining potential deadline for a verdict is March 27, 2026, Tcheyan thinks the decision will possible come earlier, on account of a “friendlier SEC perspective towards crypto.”
Brief Checklist
For now, solely 10 tokens qualify beneath the fast-track standards: Dogecoin (DOGE), Bitcoin Money (BCH), Litecoin (LTC), Chainlink (LINK), Stellar (XLM), Avalanche (AVAX), Shiba Inu (SHIB), Polkadot (DOT), Solana (SOL), and Hedera (HBAR), in accordance with the Galaxy Digital report.
Cardano (ADA) and XRP are additionally anticipated to affix them in September and October respectively, as soon as the 2 belongings move the required six months of regulated futures buying and selling, Tcheyan writes.
“We view these as extra more likely to see ETF launches given their qualification beneath the proposed fast-track rule, and really possible if the rule is accepted,” Tcheyan wrote, referring to the above belongings.
Of these, 9 tokens have already got ETF functions on file, making them front-runners if the rule is adopted. Tcheyan says XRP and SOL might additionally squeak in via one other path as every already has futures-based ETFs with “at least 40% of their NAV” tied to the underlying token.
Why Solely 12 Tokens?
The fast-track course of hinges on three circumstances: tokens should commerce on a monitored trade via the Intermarket Surveillance Group (ISG), have a six-month historical past of regulated futures buying and selling, or be backed by a futures ETF holding at the least 40% of the asset.
As of press time, no crypto asset past BTC and ETH meets the primary situation as a result of no spot crypto markets are ISG members. Whereas Coinbase’s derivatives trade is a part of the group, it solely covers futures fairly than spot buying and selling, Tcheyan explains.
That might change if the CFTC’s new “Crypto Dash” or the SEC’s “Undertaking Crypto” open doorways for regulated spot markets, although the timeframe stays unclear.
Tcheyan wrote within the report that the dearth of regulated crypto ETFs “has not dampened demand for publicity,” however as a substitute, has redirected capital “into options corresponding to digital asset treasury administration corporations, non-public trusts, and structured merchandise.”
In late August, Geoffrey Kendrick, the worldwide head of digital belongings analysis at Normal Chartered, argued that Ethereum treasury corporations are buying and selling at engaging ranges, including they’re providing higher worth than U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs.
