Monday, April 22, 2024

Market Outlook #250 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog

Market Outlook #250 (18th December 2023)

Whats up, and welcome to the 250th instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s put up, I will likely be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Casper Community, TriasLab, Morpheus Community and Cellframe. I will even be offering a year-end replace to Altcoin Market Cap.

That is the final Outlook for 2023. Have an ideal Christmas and a Blissful New Yr and I’ll see you in 2024.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Every day:

btcusddaily

Value: $40,971

Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD, from the weekly timeframe we will see that value spent final week contained in the vary of the earlier week, printing an inside week. Given this formation, the very first thing to contemplate is the potential of inside week failure, which might kind if we take out both final week’s low or its excessive after which shut again inside that weekly vary. Provided that we offered off from final week’s open into the shut again under $42k, and thus our proximity to the weekly vary low (and the broader market outlook), I lean in the direction of the probability of us taking out the weekly low at $40.3k earlier than closing again above it. In that situation, we’d count on final week’s excessive to get taken out out and value to possible proceed to squeeze past $45k, with $48.2k as main resistance past that. If, nevertheless, value closes the week under $40.3k, this situation is invalidated and I might count on a deeper pullback from there in the direction of $38k as untested prior resistance.

Dropping into the day by day, we will see that day by day construction is now bearish, given the break and shut under the $43k swing-low and subsequent lower-high; nevertheless, that wasn’t a lot of a swing level, so while that is technically bearish construction I’m not notably satisfied by it as of but. If we have been to now shut the day by day by means of $40k, that seems to be rather more convincing for short-term bearishness, with first targets of a trendline retest and the $38k prior resistance, with $33k as the key degree under that if we’re to take out all of these untapped lows alongside the trendline earlier than bottoming out. Nonetheless, if we will proceed to carry right here above $40k (or deviate this low and shut again above it), I might search for a push again above $43k earlier than favouring additional upside; between these ranges I don’t have a lot of a bias. Shut again above $43k and I do suppose we proceed to push increased into $48k…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Every day:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Every day:

ethbtcdaily

Value: $2132 (0.05203 BTC)

Ideas: If we start by ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that value retraced all the positive aspects of the prior weekly growth final week, promoting off from the open again into reclaimed help at $2172. Value depraved under the prior weekly low into $2137, which held as help, with the pair closing again above $2172. Actually, that is very a lot giving combined alerts: now we have erasure of the earlier week’s positive aspects following growth past yearly highs, however now we have a sweep of the weekly low into main help too. Principally, chop continues. What I’m right here is the place we will proceed to carry above $2172 this week; shut above it after sweeping final week’s low and I feel now we have the makings of a backside earlier than one other run at $2425. If, nevertheless, we shut the week under $2137, I feel we’re prone to see $1850 taken out earlier than a backside is discovered. Wanting on the day by day, we will see how day by day construction seems to be set to show bearish right here if we do break and shut under $2137, and if that’s confirmed we will count on $2036 to be examined later this week, however with rather more help down round $1850. Nonetheless, as talked about earlier, sweep this space of prior resistance after which climb again above $2172 later this week and I feel shorts get trapped and we squeeze again in the direction of yearly highs.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that value continues to cut round between help at 0.051 and resistance round 0.055. There’s little else to be added right here given the narrative has been the identical inside this vary for weeks now. After we break and shut both facet of the vary, I wouldn’t be fast to fade it.


Casper Community:

CSPR/USD

Every day:

csprusd

CSPR/BTC

Every day:

csprbtc

Value: $0.038 (92 satoshis)

Ideas: Provided that each pairs look just about equivalent right here for CSPR, let’s concentrate on the Greenback pair.

CSPR/USD, we will see that it has been range-bound for 585 days at this level, with a lot of that being spent above $0.025 and under $0.055, apart from a quick fakeout past that vary resistance earlier this yr. We now have bullish construction right here on the day by day however have offered off from prior help up close to the top quality, with value now set to retest the 200dMA at $0.037 as help. So long as we now maintain above reclaimed help at $0.035 and the 200dMA, forming a higher-low, I might count on to see one other push on the vary resistance from right here up close to $0.055. If it is a mission you have an interest in (reader request, FYI), I might contemplate this nearly as good an entry as any provided that your invalidation right here might be as tight at $0.031; closing under that will invalidate all of this current construction and we’d possible return in the direction of the underside of the vary from there. Wanting forward, the disbelief section is clear – shut above $0.073 and I feel this begins its bull cycle, with $0.22 as main resistance past that.


TriasLab:

TRIAS/USD

Every day:

triasusd

TRIAS/BTC

Every day:

triasbtc

Value: $5.57 (13,579 satoshis)

Ideas: Once more, given how related these pairs look right here, let’s concentrate on the Greenback pair, because the construction can also be slightly cleaner.

TRIAS/USD, we will see that value was in an extended interval of growth off the underside earlier than spending a lot of 2023 in consolidation under $4.15, faking out above that degree as soon as. This lengthy consolidation vary led to cost winding tighter with the 360dMA performing as help and value then reclaiming the 200dMA as help in October. Since, the pair has rallied in the direction of $4.15, consolidated between the 200dMA and that degree and most just lately damaged out sharply past that resistance, breaking contemporary yearly highs by means of $5. Given this market construction, I might completely not be fading this, as an alternative contemplating this possible the start of the following main leg increased for TRIAS. If we will now maintain above $4.15, I might count on $6.40 to offer manner and value to make its manner in the direction of trendline resistance and reclaimed resistance up close to $12 earlier than the following native high kinds.


Morpheus Community:

MNW/USD

Weekly:

mnwusdweekly

Every day:

mnwusddaily

MNW/BTC

Weekly:

mnwbtcweekly

Every day:

mnwbtcdaily

Value: $1.08 (2659 satoshis)

Ideas: If we start by MNW/USD on the weekly, we will see that value continues to be capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs, having now rejected under the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at prior help ~$1.46. We’re at the moment discovering help above $0.94, as has been the case since late final yr, however to be trustworthy this isn’t a very engaging long-term chart at current. We now have value discovering help above the 200wMA in Nov final yr, then rallying to contemporary yearly highs into $2.45, confirming a weekly uptrend, however then rejecting, erasing the positive aspects again into the 200wMA after which rallying rather more weakly off that very same help into the trendline. If that $0.94 help goes, this pair returns to bearish construction on the weekly, in order that’s at the moment your most necessary degree. Till it will get a weekly shut by means of that trendline and again above $1.50, I wouldn’t have an interest on this to be trustworthy – significantly better alternatives available in the market.

MNW/BTC, we will see that the pair may be very a lot nonetheless in a bear cycle at current, with contemporary lows on the newest break and shut under 3264 satoshis. Value is now sat in no man’s land, with main help under close to 1400 satoshis, and resistance overhead at that 3264 degree. There’s additionally no signal simply but of pattern exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. I really feel like given how just lately this rallied into all-time highs (Nov 2022), it is going to be some time but earlier than this one totally bottoms out; while most of its value capitulation seems to have occurred, we could have to see a interval of flat consolidation earlier than one other cycle can start for MNW.


Cellframe:

CELL/USD

Every day:

cellusd

CELL/BTC

Every day:

cellbtc

Value: $0.19 (475 satoshis)

Ideas: Once more, very like a few different tokens on this put up, CELL’s pairs look very related right here and I’m specializing in the Greenback pair, as that can also be what I’m basing my long-term place on.

So, CELL/USD, we will see that value has retraced following the push above $0.24 into $0.29, returning to reclaimed help above $0.185 and the 200dMA. We stay capped by the long-term trendline resistance, however following the multi-year downtrend now we have been consolidating above all-time lows and under $0.37 since mid-2022. I’m very a lot nonetheless in my spot place right here and if I used to be not totally allotted I might be shopping for some inside this vary. Invalidation could be contemporary all-time lows, the place I might minimize and look forward to a reclaim or a brand new vary formation. However given the broader market situations I feel we usually tend to proceed chopping round right here after which begin reversing sharply when ETH begins outperforming. Above $0.37 the primary bull cycle begins…


Altcoin Market Cap:

ALT/USD

Weekly:

total3usd

ALT/BTC

Weekly:

total3btc

Market Cap: $441.2bn

Ideas: Starting with ALT/USD, we will see that the altcoin market has emerged lastly after over 500 days of being range-bound, just lately rallying again by means of the 200wMA, consolidating above it as help after which pushing by means of multi-year resistance at $413bn. We now have pushed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market right here at $480bn and rejected, now consolidating inside the prior weekly vary. I might count on to see additional consolidation right here after the multi-week rally, however there may be nothing bearish about this on the upper timeframes. So long as we will now maintain above that $400bn space, I might count on the following squeeze to open up a much wider vary, the place issues will get very fascinating: above $480bn, there isn’t a resistance for alts again into the 38.2% fib and prior help close to $590bn – over 25% increased from right here. That’s the place I might count on extra resistance to be discovered for alts and maybe a broader market correction. Disbelief is changing into hope.

ALT/BTC, we will see that regardless of some positive aspects in Greenback values of alts – and large positive aspects on-chain in non-ETH ecosystems – now we have largely been trending decrease in opposition to BTC for over a yr. Most just lately, alts depraved under help at 10.5mn into 9.6mn and bounced, with pattern exhaustion now showing on this timeframe. We additionally noticed the market shut above trendline resistance, marginally – that is all indicative of a interval of altcoin outperformance being imminent, which is confluent with the Greenback valuation of the altcoin market. If we will reclaim 11.4mn as help right here, I feel that would be the catalyst for alts outperforming BTC into the 200wMA and prior multi-year vary help up close to 13.3mn BTC.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook – and the ultimate one among 2023!

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be at liberty to go away any feedback or questions under, or e-mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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