Saturday, June 22, 2024

Market Outlook #249 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog

Market Outlook #249 (eleventh December 2023)

Hey, and welcome to the 249th instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s put up, I shall be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polygon, Uniswap, Optimism, Alchemix, Altered State Machine and Raini.

As ever, when you’ve got any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Each day:

btcusddaily

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we are able to see that final week closed at recent yearly highs, by $42k resistance on rising quantity. Value closed out the week simply shy of $44k and early buying and selling this week has seen value dump again under $42k however maintain above $39.7k as assist, pushing up from that space again in the direction of $42k, the place it’s presently sat. this, there may be little or no to recommend any slowdown, significantly after final week’s shut by that confluence of resistance. While we proceed to carry above $39.7k this week, I feel we see this consolidation round $42k result in additional enlargement subsequent week into the 61.8% retracement stage and prior resistance at $48k, the place it’s seemingly we begin to kind a neighborhood high. If, nevertheless, this sell-off continues later this week and we shut the week again under $39.7k, it’s seemingly the native high has shaped right here and we are able to search for additional draw back subsequent week into $36k to retest all that prior resistance as assist; under that stage, we filter all of the untapped lows into $33k. That’s the roadmap from each views going into 2024.

Turning to the every day, we are able to see that value offered off sharply yesterday in one thing of a mini liquidation cascade, taking it from up close to $44k down into $40k, earlier than bouncing and now consolidating proper under that $42k stage. At current, $42k is every day resistance, so reclaiming that over the following day or two would recommend an additional restoration of that cascade and sure a march to recent highs from there; if, nevertheless, $42k continues to behave as resistance this week, we could have additional to fall but earlier than discovering a backside, with $39.6k but untested – a second leg decrease into that stage adopted by a $42k reclaim can be a pleasant backside formation to search for longs. As talked about above, till we shut the upper timeframes under $39.6k, I don’t assume this uptrend is completed fairly but. And above $45k there may be solely air into $48k.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Each day:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Each day:

ethbtcdaily

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we are able to see that value closed firmly by resistance at $2170 final week, pushing as excessive as $2400 earlier than closing at $2350 on good quantity. We have been inches shy of that $2425 stage however value has rejected that resistance early this week, clearing out the prior weekly low into prior resistance turned assist at $2170 and bouncing off it. If we are able to now maintain above that stage, that appears very very like a bit flush earlier than enlargement past the 38.2% fib and reclaimed resistance at $2426, with $2650 the following stage of curiosity above that. If we shut the weekly again under $2170, I might anticipate $1850 to be retested earlier than a backside is discovered, the place there may be loads of confluence. Turning to the every day, we are able to see how the pair depraved proper into that prior resistance cluster earlier than bouncing onerous yesterday, so holding above $2137 over the following day or two is paramount for this construction to stay legitimate as resistance turned assist; begin closing again inside these resistances and the image seems much less fairly, with a load of untapped lows seen earlier than that $1850 stage comes into view, the place the 200dMA can also be sat…

Trying now at ETH/BTC, final week retested 0.051 as assist and held as soon as once more, bouncing off that to shut at 0.0537, however remaining firmly capped by 0.0551 as resistance. As talked about final week, the image could be very clear right here: under 0.051 we take out 0.04877 earlier than discovering a backside; and above 0.0551 and the 200wMA we pattern in the direction of trendline resistance. No have to make it any extra sophisticated than that. An extended-term reversal solely turns into excessive likelihood as soon as we flip that multi-year trendline into assist, for my part.


Polygon:

MATIC/USD

Weekly:

maticusdweekly

Each day:

maticusddaily

MATIC/BTC

Weekly:

maticbtcweekly

Each day:

maticbtcdaily

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Starting with MATIC/USD, we are able to see on the weekly that value bounced off that 200wMA final week and rallied again into assist turned resistance at $0.92, closing proper at that confluence of resistance. Early this week, the pair has offered off, holding above the 200wMA and now sat in no man’s land inside the prior weekly vary. Till we get a weekly shut above $0.93, we are able to’t make certain of additional enlargement / pattern continuation, however given the construction right here and the response off the 200wMA I’m leaning in the direction of a breakout quickly. If we drop into the every day, we are able to see that value additionally held above the 200dMA, front-running it as assist earlier than reversing. So long as we now kind a higher-low above $0.77, I might anticipate the following crack at $0.93 to present method and for the pair to then broaden in the direction of $1.30 within the coming weeks.

Turning to MATIC/BTC, we are able to see that value rallied off of assist final week, wicking in the direction of 1717 satoshis earlier than closing the week at highs round 2100. It is a promising signal for bulls, and if we are able to now maintain above 2000 I might anticipate the vary to get crammed in in the direction of the 200wMA and prior assist turned resistance at 2450. Dropping into the every day, we are able to see how value faked out above the 200dMA earlier than retracing into that assist cluster and now turning every day construction bullish on the latest bounce. Acceptance above 2100 on the every day right here is vital, as that may make it very seemingly we break past the 200dMA once more, and often the second breakout from a bottoming formation will not be a fakeout, so we might anticipate to see 2450 satoshis adopted by 2950.


Uniswap:

UNI/USD

Weekly:

uniusdweekly

Each day:

uniusddaily

UNI/BTC

Weekly:

unibtcweekly

Each day:

unibtcdaily

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Starting with UNI/USD, we are able to see on the weekly that value poked above $6.30 final week, pushing in the direction of $7.50 earlier than closing again close to $6.60. We undoubtedly have bullish construction right here however UNI stays inside a 580-day vary, having spent a lot of 2023 chopping round above vary assist and under $7.50. From right here, I wish to see this space round $6.30 maintain as assist and value to shut the weekly by $7.50 later in December; that for me is the start of the following cycle for UNI, given how that stage has capped the pair since September 2022. Above it, I feel we take out the $9.90 excessive and proceed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at $13.87 earlier than discovering any significant resistance. Trying on the every day, on this timeframe it’s key we maintain above $5.65 as reclaimed assist; a pleasant wick under $5.84 into that stage adopted by a reclaim of $6.30 later within the week can be a very nice sign for additional upside, for my part.

Turning to UNI/BTC, we are able to see that value is now consolidating above multi-year assist at 14k satoshis after deviating under it. While this stage continues to carry as reclaimed assist, I feel it seems very very like the underside has shaped right here and we are able to anticipate a transfer by 17.5k satoshis to return sooner quite than later; above that, weekly construction turns bullish and I might expect outperformance for UNI all the best way again in the direction of that 26.7k satoshis space. Dropping into the every day we are able to see how the 200dMA continues to cap the rallies just lately, so a transfer by 17.5k would additionally flip that into assist, offering confluence for additional upside.


Optimism:

OP/USD

Each day:

opusddaily

OP/BTC

Each day:

opbtcdaily

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: As Optimism has solely been buying and selling for round 18 months I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair.

OP/USD, we are able to see that value could be very a lot in an uptrend, having marked out a backside in June and a macro higher-low in October, then breaking by trendline resistance from the all-time excessive, flipping the 200dMA as assist and persevering with to tear greater. Final week noticed the pair push by the $2 space as resistance into reclaimed resistance proper round $2.40, under which it presently sits. That is arguably an important resistance on the chart at current, with it being each the 61.8% fib retracement of the bear market and the double high from 2022. Settle for above this stage as reclaimed assist and I feel we get a parabolic transfer in the direction of all-time highs from there, with a excessive likelihood that this second bull cycle takes OP into value discovery past $3.30 given the market circumstances.


Alchemix:

ALCX/USD

Each day:

alcxusd

ALCX/BTC

Each day:

alcxbtc

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: As each pairs look equivalent right here for ALCX, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair.

ALCX/USD, we are able to see that value had shaped a long-term backside at $16.42, earlier than breaching it to kind a double backside at $13.46 in 2023. Subsequently, in August 2023, we deviated under that double backside, shaped a recent all-time low at $10.27 after which consolidated for a number of months between that low and prior assist turned resistance, additionally discovering resistance on the 200dMA, above which the pair had not discovered assist (past a short fakeout) for a number of years. Value has since emerged from this vary, reclaiming each $13.46 and $16.42 as assist, turning every day construction bullish. Concurrently, we’ve turned the 200dMA into assist, above which a higher-low has shaped. Value rallied from that low into $26.44 final week earlier than rejecting and now retracing again into prior resistance at $18.70. So long as the pair can proceed to carry above $16.42 right here, I might anticipate to see continuation greater, as that is very a lot a classical cyclical backside at current and any transfer above $26 will seemingly be the start of the following bull cycle for ALCX. For targets on spot baggage, $73 can be the primary space of curiosity after the hole fill, adopted by $178 after which $478 as main resistance.


Altered State Machine:

ASTO/USD

Each day:

astousd

ASTO/BTC

Each day:

astobtc

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Once more, as ASTO has solely been buying and selling for round 18 months, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.

ASTO/USD, we are able to see that value has concluded its first bear cycle, shedding 97% of its worth from the all-time highs at $0.40. Value backside in October at $0.014 earlier than starting a pointy rally since, reclaiming a number of ranges of assist and shutting firmly above the 200dMA, which acted as assist in November. Value is now sandwiched between assist turned resistance at $0.052 and reclaimed assist at $0.037, sitting marginally above the 360dMA at current. So long as the $0.037 space holds as assist, I feel the construction right here is okay regardless of the divergence in momentum; shut under that and we seemingly retraced again in the direction of $0.029 to search out assist once more, with $0.024 because the golden alternative for a spot entry if that comes. If this construction does maintain and value merely consolidates inside this vary, I might look to purchase spot on acceptance above $0.052, as there may be mainly no resistance above that for one more 100% rally, and no resistance past $0.13 all the best way into $0.25. I feel when this one rips, it’ll actually rip, with recent highs past $0.40 seemingly in 2024.


RAINI:

RAINI/USD

Weekly:

rainiusdweekly

Each day:

rainiusddaily

RAINI/BTC

Weekly:

rainibtcweekly

Each day:

rainibtcdaily

Value:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Starting with RAINI/USD, we are able to see that value closed final week at recent yearly highs for 2023, marginally by resistance at $0.05. We now have since continued to push greater early this week with $0.05 performing as assist. If that stage can proceed to behave as assist this week, there isn’t a actual resistance on the weekly timeframe again into the 38.2% fib of the bear market and reclaimed resistance at $0.08-$0.088. That will be the place I might anticipate a neighborhood high to start to kind, from which we could get the primary main correction for Raini of this new cycle. If, nevertheless, we deviate above $0.05 this week after which shut again under it, it’s seemingly the native high is in right here and I might search for a higher-low to kind above $0.035 earlier than continuation into that vary above. Finally, that is one I’m seeking to maintain for a lot of extra months but, with expectations of recent all-time highs past $0.20 in 2024, significantly given the Beam narrative.

Turning to RAINI/BTC, we are able to see that value is presently sat proper round that 38.2% fib however there isn’t an historic stage right here for confluence. I might anticipate 156 satoshis to be retested as resistance if we are able to maintain above 121 right here. Past that stage, recent yearly highs are on the best way by 183, with 230 satoshis the extent to observe for past that. Once more, in the event you’re in a spot place like me, I’m now sitting on my arms till we hit 280 satoshis as main resistance, promoting a partial after which letting the remainder trip for recent all-time highs.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions under, or electronic mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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