Friday, April 12, 2024

Market Outlook #247 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog

Market Outlook #247 (twenty eighth November 2023)

Good day, and welcome to the 247th instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s submit, I will likely be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polkadot, Cosmos Hub, Aave, Akash Community, Litentry and Rainicorn.

As ever, in case you have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Each day:

btcusddaily

Worth: $37,295

Market Cap: $729.275bn

Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that worth – regardless of wicking decrease earlier within the week – shaped a higher-low above the prior week and closed at marginal new yearly highs on rising quantity. We closed simply above prior help at $37.1k however stay capped by $38k in the intervening time. It seems nearly like one thing of an ascending triangle is now forming with $38k because the resistance; and so long as we maintain above $36k as help this week I feel it’s probably we see an upside decision and push up into $39.6k, adopted by $42k as the main stage. Naturally, a weekly shut under $36k would invalidate this construction and we might then take into account a deeper pull-back, however for now all indicators level north, for my part.

Turning to the every day, we are able to see this ascending triangle formation a little bit extra clearly, with a failed breakout try above resistance a few days in the past however a scarcity of willingness to push any decrease at current. While we proceed to carry this trendline and prior resistance turned help round $36k, I feel it’s probably we proceed to push larger, notably if $37k now begins to behave as help because it at the moment seems to be doing. Looking ahead to a every day shut firmly by means of $38k to behave because the catalyst for the subsequent leg larger. Nothing a lot else to debate right here for now.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Each day:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Each day:

ethbtcdaily

Worth: $2045 (0.05487 BTC)

Market Cap: $245.906bn

Ideas: One other week goes by for ETH/USD and we stay consolidating proper round that $2037 stage. Final week noticed worth type a higher-low above the prior week’s low however proceed to be capped by $2133 as resistance. While we’re persevering with to cut round at this stage however maintain above prior trendline resistance, very like BTC I count on we see upside decision of this vary and any transfer by means of $2170 opens up that $250 vary into the subsequent resistance space at $2426. Dropping into the every day, we are able to see that worth is now retesting $2037, which might turn into resistance turned help right here if it holds – if not we’re reclaimed resistance and sure one other transfer decrease into $1957 as the subsequent main help. Nevertheless, we’re additionally testing minor trendline resistance as help right here too, offering confluence for a potential backside early this week on this space. If that happens and we begin to push larger off this trendline, I feel $2133 will get blown out later this week, after which we’re searching for a weekly shut above $2172 for continuation larger in December.

Turning to ETH/BTC, extra consolidation adopted final week under that 200wMA and vary low at 0.055, however worth held as soon as once more above 0.0533 as help. While we’re on this vary, there actually is just not much more so as to add to final week’s evaluation: weekly shut again above that 200wMA and backside is probably going in, at the very least for a push into trendline resistance; however shut under 0.0533 and I feel we take out 0.051 into 0.0487. Let’s see if we get any actual motion this week…


Polkadot:

DOT/USD

Weekly:

dotusdweekly

Each day:

dotusddaily

DOT/BTC

Weekly:

dotbtcweekly

Each day:

dotbtcdaily

Worth: $5.25 (14,077 satoshis)

Market Cap: $6.825bn

Ideas: Starting with DOT/USD, we are able to see that worth has been consolidating after its robust transfer off the lows and thru trendline resistance, rejecting under prior help at $6 however holding now above $5 as reclaimed help. This $5-6 vary could be very a lot simply consolidation post-trendline breakout, so so long as we now maintain above $4.40 I feel we’re a transfer into $7.08 sooner reasonably than later, the place there’s stronger resistance. Weekly shut by means of that’s what bulls wish to see for the subsequent giant vary to open up, with $10-11 the resistance space I’d count on to see examined as soon as $7 turns into help. Dropping into the every day, we are able to see how the 200dMA is now performing as help round $5.27, aligning with reclaimed help in that space; we’re successfully bull-flagging into that stage as help, which is promising. Both a higher-low above it or a sweep of that stage with some divergence can be the right setup for an extended entry, with a view to carry for a breakout above $6, $7 as the first goal.

Turning now to DOT/BTC, we are able to see that worth rejected at prior help ~15.6k satoshis and is now forming a higher-low above the October lows and all-time low at 11.8k satoshis. We’re nonetheless very a lot in a bear pattern right here, with bearish market construction on the weekly, however, if we drop into the every day, we are able to see indicators of a shift right here, as worth reclaimed help at 13.5k satoshis and has shaped a higher-low there. Nonetheless, while that is under under the 200dMA (because it has been for nicely over 18 months) and 16.4k satoshis, it’s safer to imagine the downtrend persists, however given how the broader market seems at current I might not be shocked to see that confluence of resistance cleared in December, turning market construction bullish on the upper timeframes. If we see that, we are able to take a look at lengthy publicity on DOT in mid-Dec-January for some catch-up strikes.


Cosmos Hub:

ATOM/USD

Weekly:

atomusdweekly

Each day:

atomusddaily

ATOM/BTC

Weekly:

atombtcweekly

Each day:

atombtcdaily

Worth: $9.45 (25,352 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.765bn

Ideas: Starting with ATOM/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth rallied final week after wicking under help at $9 to shut at weekly highs simply shy of $10. We are actually capped by prior help however this push off help into weekly highs signifies larger costs from right here to me, with a transfer above $10.30 this week opening an enormous vary to play longs inside: we then have solely trendline resistance barring the best way to the 200wMA up at $13.40, the place there plenty of confluence for resistance and thus probably a clever space to hedge lengthy publicity within the coming weeks and months. If we reject $10.30 and begin to shut again under $9, nonetheless, then we are able to take a look at a return to $7.30, the place I might search for longs above that stage forming a higher-low. Briefly wanting on the every day, we are able to see that worth bounced off the 200dMA as help and reclaimed $9 subsequently, having reset momentum indicators and thus now wanting primed for continuation by means of $10. Let’s see what the week brings to Cosmos…

Turning to ATOM/BTC, we now have a very nice formation right here following a deviation under multi-year help at 24k satoshis, with worth since consolidating again above the extent after a pointy reversal and final week wicking again under the extent solely to shut above 26k satoshis. So long as this help continues to carry now, it’s probably the underside is in and we are able to count on any transfer by means of 27k satoshis to result in a a lot sharper rally into that trendline from the September 2022 highs. Beneath 24k, nonetheless, the downtrend resumes, and we are able to take a look at 17.8k under as main help. If we take a look at the every day, we are able to see the pair continues to be capped by the 200dMA, so acceptance by means of that will additionally look very a lot constructive for a longer-term reversal.


Aave:

AAVE/USD

Weekly:

aaveusdweekly

Each day:

aaveusddaily

AAVE/BTC

Weekly:

aavebtcweekly

Each day:

aavebtcdaily

Worth: $95.60 (0.00256 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.396bn

Ideas: If we start with AAVE/USD, we are able to see that the pair has been range-bound for 567 days, with help at $49 and vary resistance round $113, all of this price-action having additionally occurred under the 200wMA. AAVE was additionally one of many first tokens to peak in 2021, and thus it has been nearly three years since these all-time highs shaped in opposition to the Greenback. We are actually urgent up in opposition to the top quality as soon as once more, with resistance at $90 now performing as minor help and worth sandwiched between there and $113. Now, given how this space of the vary has acted as resistance for 18 months, I might not personally search for recent lengthy publicity round right here; reasonably, I might search for a weekly shut above $113 after which look to enter on a retest of vary resistance as help, if that chance presents itself, with invalidation under $90 and searching for $167 as a primary goal, adopted by the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at $207. If we lose $90 right here earlier than a breakout, I might search for any alternative to get lengthy near $62.

Turning to AAVE/BTC, we are able to see that worth is consolidating inside a big historic vary, with help at 22.5k satoshis and resistance on the 2018 cycle highs of 28.5k satoshis. We’re additionally seeing worth capped by trendline resistance from October 2021. What bulls wish to see from AAVE right here is sort of clear: a weekly shut by means of each trendline resistance and 28.5k, accepting above each and flipping them into help. If we see that happen, I might be assured {that a} backside has shaped for this cycle and we’d be wanting on the subsequent bull cycle for AAVE, with the 47-55k space as the primary main goal for upside.


Akash Community:

AKT/USD

Weekly:

aktusdweekly

Each day:

aktusddaily

AKT/BTC

Weekly:

aktbtcweekly

Each day:

aktbtcdaily

Worth: $1.64 (4385 satoshis)

Market Cap: $363.597mn

Ideas: Starting with AKT/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth is in a powerful uptrend, turning prior resistance into help on rising quantity and now discovering some resistance on the 23.6% fib stage and prior help at $2. That is textbook price-action to this point since bottoming, and I might count on to see reclaimed help at $1.37 now maintain as a better low and worth then proceed to push into $2.67 as the subsequent resistance. I’m personally not seeking to promote any of my AKT till we get nearer to $4, nonetheless, with a view to carry at the very least 20% of my authentic place for recent all-time highs above $8. Nothing else so as to add right here as that is very clear market construction.

Turning now to AKT/BTC, we are able to see how worth rejected 6640 on the primary try again in August and closed under 5200 satoshis on that try, then retracing into 2850 to type a better low after which reversing on rising quantity off that stage. Worth is now as soon as once more sat proper under 5200 satoshis, so we’re searching for a weekly shut above this stage to open up the subsequent leg of the cycle, with a retest of 6640 the primary stage of curiosity right here, given the confluence of resistance in that space. Above 8000 satoshis, there’s successfully zero resistance again in direction of the all-time highs, in order that’s the place I feel we’ll see worth speed up (as market cycles usually do). Onwards and upwards in 2024…


Litentry:

LIT/USD

Weekly:

litusdweekly

Each day:

litusddaily

LIT/BTC

Weekly:

litbtcweekly

Each day:

litbtcdaily

Worth: $0.87 (2329 satoshis)

Market Cap: $40.644mn

Ideas: Starting with LIT/USD, we are able to see that worth has been in a downtrend since incept, buying and selling decrease for over 1000 days at this level, however having spent the previous 12 months consolidating above all-time lows and above help at $0.54. Now we have not too long ago turned weekly construction bullish by closing above $0.80 and I’ve added to my spot bag right here round $0.86. I wish to see the pair now push on and shut above $1.30 after which overcome that trendline resistance from the all-time excessive, after which I feel we’ll see a disbelief rally kick in and LIT’s first bull cycle start. I’m seeking to maintain this throughout that first market cycle, with recent all-time highs above $16 the expectation within the subsequent 12-18 months, however with a view to promote partials at $6 and at $12.50.

Turning to LIT/BTC, we are able to see that the pair has been consolidating between help at 2000 satoshis and resistance at 2850 for six months now, holding above all-time lows within the meantime. This diminishing volatility and consolidation vary above all-time lows is precisely what I search for in a bottoming formation, offering confluence for including to my spot bag right here. For these with rather less threat urge for food, you might await a powerful shut above 2850 and turning that stage into reclaimed help earlier than entry, making it a better chance that we see continuation larger from there, with 6200 satoshis as the primary main resistance above. Little else to debate for LIT.


Rainicorn:

RAINI/USD

Weekly:

rainiusdweekly

Each day:

rainiusddaily

RAINI/BTC

Weekly:

rainibtcweekly

Each day:

rainibtcdaily

Worth: $0.0244 (65 satoshis)

Market Cap: $11.857mn

Ideas: Starting with RAINI/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has been reversing sharply for the previous few weeks and is now sat in no man’s land between reclaimed help at $0.016 and help turned resistance at $0.04, above which the 2023 excessive can be sat at $0.05. I count on this momentum – and the momentum within the broader marketplace for the BEAM ecosystem – to proceed, taking this into $0.04 with haste. What we then wish to see is the formation of a higher-low after which a weekly shut by means of the 2023 highs and the 23.6% fib retracement at $0.05. That’ll be the catalyst for the subsequent part of RAINI’s bull cycle, as we emerge from disbelief. I’m anticipating to see $0.088 hit later this 12 months after which worth to speed up in direction of recent all-time highs later in 2024 after some form of longer consolidation interval.

Turning to RAINI/BTC, we are able to see how the pair has turned weekly construction bullish and has reclaimed help at 62 satoshis, with 43 satoshis performing as reclaimed help final week. There may be air between right here at 85 satoshis, which is then subsequent stage I count on to see hit within the subsequent week or two, however actually I don’t see a lot by means of main resistance till 108 satoshis. That’s the place I might count on the pair to take a breather earlier than making a transfer for that 38.2% retracement stage and historic resistance at 134 satoshis. In case you’re searching for an entry, I’m undecided we get a pointy pull-back down right here however clearly 43 satoshis can be golden, or something near that. Trying forward into 2024, I’m anticipating any acceptance above the 2023 highs at 180 to start the parabolic part of its bull cycle, with 280 as main resistance above that (the place I’ll probably promote some RAINI) and recent all-time highs past that at 330.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be at liberty to depart any feedback or questions under, or e-mail me straight at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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