Saturday, June 15, 2024

Market Outlook #245 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog

Market Outlook #245 (thirteenth November 2023)

Hiya, and welcome to the 245th instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s submit, I might be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Chainlink, Polkadot, ImmutableX, Perpetual Protocol, DIA, Saito and Cellframe.

As ever, in case you have any requests for subsequent week, let me know.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

btcusdweekly

Every day:

btcusddaily

Value: $36,982

Market Cap: $721.671bn

Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD on the weekly chart, we will see that value rallied once more final week off the weekly open, on greater quantity than the earlier week, pushing by way of the 38.2% fib retracement of the bear market at $36k into $37.1k, poking marginally above that however closing on the stage. We see no indicators nonetheless of momentum exhaustion on this timeframe, and given the shut I’m leaning in the direction of continuation of this squeeze greater to fill in the remainder of the hole into $39.6k this week. There’s, in fact, additionally the likelihood that a number of ETFs are accredited this week (although a slim likelihood), and in that case it’s seemingly we push all the best way into the 50% fib retracement and reclaimed resistance at $42k. Both means, there may be nothing on the weekly timeframe that implies a longer-term prime is in, and if we do dip early this week I might anticipate it to be shallow.

Nonetheless, if we drop into the each day, I’ve marked out two attainable trajectories I’m contemplating from right here. The primary is as above: we get a shallow pull-back in the direction of resistance from final week at $36k, discover help and proceed greater into the resistance ranges between $39.6k and $42k; the second trajectory is that if this divergence in momentum is validated and we shut again inside $35.2k and switch it into resistance, the place I might then anticipate the remainder of the lows of that week to be swept into $32.9k and value to then mark out a backside round there. Thrilling occasions forward, regardless.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ethusdweekly

Every day:

ethusddaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ethbtcweekly

Every day:

ethbtcdaily

Value: $2110.58 (0.0571 BTC)

Market Cap: $254.658bn

Ideas: If we start by ETH/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair rallied laborious final week, turning trendline resistance into help on the weekly open after which pushing into resistance at $2037, wicking above that simply shy of the yearly excessive however closing again marginally above $2037. If this stage now turns help, I might anticipate ETH to start out enjoying catch up, with contemporary yearly highs above $2172 lastly opening up the transfer into the 38.2% fib retracement at $2425, which I’ve had marked out for a good whereas. That’s the extent I anticipate the pair to squeeze into over the subsequent couple of weeks if we will now maintain above $2037. If we shut the weekly again under $2037, I might anticipate a bit extra of a pull-back in the direction of $1850 to mark out a higher-low earlier than one other run at yearly highs. Dropping into the each day, we will see that not like BTC there isn’t a momentum divergence right here, and on this timeframe the pair is discovering help at $2037 early this week, pushing off that stage again in the direction of final week’s excessive. Shut the each day above $2172 and there may be fairly actually no resistance for an additional $250 transfer…

Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that value depraved into 0.051 final week and located robust help, bouncing off that stage all the best way into prior help turned resistance at 0.0577 earlier than rejecting and shutting the week marginally under the 200wMA and the Might 2021 lows at 0.0551. Nonetheless, that was fairly the present of energy from bulls off that low and if we see continuation greater this week and value closes above the 200wMA and prior vary help at 0.0551, in my opinion the cyclical backside is prone to be in, with value then prone to push in the direction of the trendline resistance. If we drop into the each day, we will see how we now have bullish construction with higher-highs and lows, and early this week value is discovering help above 0.0551, pushing again into 0.0577 as we converse. Given how robust the push was final week off the underside, I might anticipate to see 0.0577 give means if retested this week, and value to squeeze into 0.0594 earlier than discovering resistance. Bears must see 0.0577 act as resistance as soon as once more right here, with any shut again under 0.0551 now trying like continuation of the longer-term downtrend. Let’s see how the week performs out.


Chainlink:

LINK/USD

Weekly:

linkusdweekly

Every day:

linkusddaily

LINK/BTC

Weekly:

linkbtcweekly

Every day:

linkbtcdaily

Value: $15.33 (41,455 satoshis)

Market Cap: $8.495bn

Ideas: If we start by LINK/USD, we will see that the pair continued its ascent final week and reveals little signal of slowing, pushing by way of the 200wMA for the primary time since April 2022 and shutting proper on the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at ~$16. While quantity nonetheless seems good and there’s no momentum exhaustion on the upper timeframes but, I might be cautious to leap in proper right here round resistance. If we drop into the each day, once more we will see no indicators of divergence up right here however I might be on the lookout for a pull-back into $13.30 – or near it – earlier than on the lookout for leveraged longs. That additionally aligns with a 200wMA retest, if we get it. Nonetheless, if we don’t get that, we will look to play the squeeze into $21 by shopping for the primary shallow pull-back after a each day shut above $16.60 with invalidation under right this moment’s low.

Turning to LINK/BTC, we will see extra motive why we shouldn’t be fast to leap in with leverage right here if you’re sidelined, because the pair is urgent up towards the 2022 highs and the 200wMA at 45k-47k satoshis. Weekly shut above this might open up one other 15% of upside into the subsequent resistance, however would additionally sign a longer-term reversal and continuation into the 38.2% fib retracement at 76k satoshis, round which there are a number of ranges of resistance. If we briefly have a look at the each day, we will see how there may be some minor divergence up right here however value is discovering help at current above prior resistance at 40k satoshis. Until we now shut under that, it’s seemingly we at the very least retest 45k right here. Break and shut above that stage and clearly issues look much more promising for LINK, with solely air between there at 57k satoshis. Nonetheless, both deviate above 45k and shut again inside it, or simply discover resistance under it on a retest this week and break under 40k and I feel we’re prone to transfer 15% decrease into 35.4k satoshis. The pattern, nevertheless, continues to be very a lot pointing up transferring into 2024.


Polkadot:

DOT/USD

Weekly:

dotusdweekly

Every day:

dotusddaily

DOT/BTC

Weekly:

dotbtcweekly

Every day:

dotbtcdaily

Value: $5.61 (15,156 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.268bn

Ideas: Starting with DOT/USD, we will see from the weekly that after two years of bear market the pair seems to have bottomed, breaking above 2023’s trendline resistance a few weeks in the past and turning it into help final week, from which value rallied into the weekly shut at $5.70, reclaiming a number of help ranges. We at the moment are consolidating between reclaimed help at $5.34 and resistance at $6, and if we pull again from right here I might be on the lookout for the formation of a higher-low above $4.42. If we don’t pull again right here, I might anticipate to see any acceptance above $6 result in one other rally into $7.08, the place there may be historic resistance, with a weekly shut above $6 additionally turning construction bullish on this timeframe. Above $7, the cyclical reversal is on and we will have a look at that $10-11 space subsequent.

Turning to DOT/BTC, the pair has been in a downtrend for 910 days, dropping 88% of its worth from the all-time excessive throughout that interval. Value fell inside touching distance of the all-time low at 11.8k satoshis a number of weeks in the past and bounced, reversing sharply final week to shut marginally under prior help at 15k satoshis. We nonetheless have bearish weekly construction and a agency downtrend right here, however momentum is trying extra promising after this rally. Bulls now wish to see a higher-low kind above the all-time low and value to then shut again above 17.8k satoshis from there to start trying like a longer-term backside is in. If we drop into the each day, we will see that we’re additionally sat marginally under the 200dMA, which as capped the pair since early 2022 – acceptance above that and turning it into help could be a promising signal for a sustained reversal, with 25.6k satoshis the subsequent main resistance above that.


ImmutableX:

IMX/USD

Every day:

imxusd

IMX/BTC

Every day:

imxbtc

Value: $1.22 (3286 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.516bn

Ideas: As IMX has solely been buying and selling for round 18 months, each pairs look nearly similar and so I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair.

Taking a look at IMX/USD, we will see that value shaped a backside in September under the $0.52 help stage, deviating into $0.48 earlier than rallying sharply on excessive quantity into the 200dMA and rejecting. Value then shaped the next low in October above $0.52 and has since been rallying continuous, breaking by way of the 200dMA at $0.70 and reclaiming that stage as help, then persevering with greater so far as help turned resistance at $1.31, which capped the pair earlier this 12 months. This led to a pointy rejection and swift pullback into $0.80, which held agency as help, and the pair has v-reversed again above $1.10 since. We’ve got the makings of some momentum exhaustion up right here as we come into this 2023 resistance zone, however given the sharp reversal off that preliminary rejection, I might anticipate to see $1.31 give means on the subsequent try. If that happens and we flip that stage as help, no matter momentum indicators I feel it’s seemingly we take out the 2023 excessive at $1.60 and run into $1.80 resistance. Past that, the remainder of IMX’s first bull cycle awaits in 2024…


Perpetual Protocol:

PERP/USD

Weekly:

perpusdweekly

Every day:

perpusddaily

PERP/BTC

Weekly:

perpbtcweekly

Every day:

perpbtcdaily

Value: $0.70 (1889 satoshis)

Market Cap: $50.764mn

Ideas: Starting with PERP/USD, we will see that value has been held inside this broader vary between all-time lows and resistance at $1.37 for over 500 days, extra lately forming a higher-low above reclaimed help at $0.51 and pushing into resistance at $0.75. This $0.50-0.75 vary has held for the most effective a part of three months now and given the quantity on the impulse candle off the underside I’m now on the lookout for a weekly shut above $0.75 to substantiate continuation to the highest finish of the vary later this 12 months. Longer-term, a weekly shut above $1.37 is what we’re for the subsequent part of the cycle to start, however for now so long as we’re above $0.50 the pair seems bullish.

Turning to PERP/BTC, we will see that value had shaped a variety above the all-time low at 1516 satoshis and under prior help turned resistance at 1942 for months earlier this 12 months earlier than that top quantity breakout candle in September. The pair then retraced all of that candle again into the all-time low final week, bouncing above it however remaining capped by 1942 satoshis. The primary signal, subsequently, {that a} reversal is underway could be a weekly shut again above 1942. If we see that, I might anticipate value to push up into 2600 satoshis, retesting that space as resistance – and above that we come into an important stage on the chart to show again into help at 3600 satoshis. Bullish above that all-time low, in fact. Briefly dropping into the each day, we will see that value is now contending with the 200dMA, the trendline and horizontal resistance, so clearing this cluster with some power could be promising certainly. Settle for above 1950 and I feel we’re prepared for the subsequent wave.


DIA:

DIA/USD

Weekly:

diausdweekly

Every day:

diausddaily

DIA/BTC

Weekly:

diabtcweekly

Every day:

diabtcdaily

Value: $0.30 (811 satoshis)

Market Cap: $33.26mn

Ideas: If we start by DIA/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair has been in a downtrend since April 2021 however that the volatility has drastically diminished on the latest strikes decrease, with some momentum exhaustion coming into play. Value shaped a double backside on the all-time low at $0.215 in Might and September, marginally sweeping that low earlier than pushing off it to show weekly construction bullish as value closed again above reclaimed help at $0.26. Since then, the pair has continued to push up, final week closing above $0.296. We at the moment are sat proper under help turned resistance at $0.33, however that is the final stage of main resistance earlier than an enormous vary opens up into the subsequent areas of resistance up close to $0.50. If we see that weekly shut by way of $0.33, I’ll look to purchase spot on a retest if I can get it and search for $0.49 as a primary goal, adopted by $0.58 and $0.78 as the ultimate goal, given how vital that stage is traditionally. Longer-term, above that stage, I feel we’re within the midst of a bull cycle for DIA and might simply look to purchase pull-backs, however that’s seemingly months away but.

Turning to DIA/BTC, the pair continues to be capped by trendline resistance from that April 2021 excessive. A few weeks in the past, the pair shaped a contemporary all-time low at 704 satoshis however we’ve clear pattern exhaustion down right here, and the pair has since reclaimed help at 788 satoshis which had beforehand held for a number of months. While we may look to purchase spot right here for a cyclical (12-18 month) place with invalidation on an in depth under 704, I would favor to be a bit extra affected person right here and watch for the trendline breakout and acceptance above 1000 satoshis for that. DIA has by no means skilled a bull cycle regardless of having traded for 3 years, so that is positively one to keep watch over. The cyclical place additionally differs from the short-term commerce outlined within the Greenback pair, so relying in your preferences there are two methods to play this.


Saito:

SAITO/USD

Every day:

saitousd

SAITO/BTC

Every day:

saitobtc

Value: $0.0085 (23 satoshis)

Market Cap: $18.063mn

Ideas: As each pairs for SAITO look very comparable, I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair.

Taking a look at SAITO/USD, we will see that value lately shaped a low at $0.0065 and has rallied off that low above trendline resistance that has capped the pair all 12 months. While this breakout is promising for bulls, the pair stays under the 200dMA and is now sat round help turned resistance at $0.0086. This space is especially vital traditionally for SAITO, having additionally been the Might-June 2022 backside and the unique help stage when buying and selling started, so a powerful reclaim of this stage as help would, in my opinion, make it seemingly that the underside is in right here. Affirmation of this might be a weekly shut above $0.01. In that state of affairs, I feel the pair pushes up into the 360dMA and prior help round $0.0125 earlier than discovering any additional resistance after which makes a run for the 2023 excessive at $0.023, starting its subsequent bull cycle. Clearly, if we see the pair reject right here and shut again under that trendline, this has been a deviation / failed breakout and we will anticipate the underside to be retested on the very least…


Cellframe:

CELL/USD

Weekly:

cellusdweekly

Every day:

cellusddaily

CELL/BTC

Weekly:

cellbtcweekly

Every day:

cellbtcdaily

Value: $0.225 (610 satoshis)

Market Cap: $6.493mn

Ideas: Starting with CELL/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair stays capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs and the earliest buying and selling days, having spent most of its price-history in a downtrend but in addition having consolidated for over 500 days above the all-time lows. Value has lately turned weekly market construction bullish by closing above $0.185 and is now consolidating under $0.245 as resistance, with any acceptance above this stage opening up one other retest of that trendline overhead, in addition to prior help at $0.37. I’m very a lot nonetheless in my spot place right here and am on the lookout for a weekly shut above the trendline and above $0.37 to substantiate that the primary part of CELL’s first bull cycle is starting. Contemporary all-time lows stay my invalidation right here and I’m trying to maintain this for the majority of the cycle.

If we flip to CELL/BTC, we will see that the pair has been flat for the previous 168 days above the all-time low however under prior help turned resistance at 770 satoshis. Extra vital than that, nevertheless, is the extent above it at 1150 satoshis. That can also be the August 2021 backside and so a weekly shut above 1150 would flip weekly construction bullish and reclaim that historic stage as help. If you’re on the sidelines on the lookout for an entry, you can look to enter both above that stage or incrementally between right here and there. I’m personally centered right here on the Greenback pair for my total positioning.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions under, or e-mail me immediately at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.



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