Crypto gamblers have staked an astonishing $445 million on a possible presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, driving election betting to unprecedented ranges on Polymarket.
Dune Analytics knowledge reveals that Polymarket’s cumulative guess quantity reached $1.03 billion in July, up from $672.94 million in June. This marks a dramatic enhance in comparison with July 2023, when the platform’s cumulative guess quantity was $283.16 million.
Polymarket permits customers to guess on varied information occasions, branding itself as “the world’s largest prediction market.” Customers can guess on over 1,000 totally different outcomes, together with the US presidential election, which has drawn important curiosity in current weeks.
The platform noticed a spike in customers and bets following headlines about Harris’ probably Democratic nomination and an assassination try on Trump, the main Republican contender, earlier this month.
Regardless of its US-focused matters, Polymarket stays inaccessible to American customers straight, who should use VPNs and crypto wallets with USDC to position bets.
Trump vs. Harris stats
Within the week following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the Democratic race, Harris doubled the Democrats’ odds of successful, transferring from 18% to 38%. These features primarily stemmed from quite a few smaller bets, whereas Trump’s help got here from a number of high-stakes bettors.
Regardless of Harris’s current features, Polymarket whales (large-scale bettors) overwhelmingly favor Trump, who retains a big lead with a 59% probability of successful the elections.
The platform’s interactive map and trending market evaluation replicate a dynamic and closely contested election season. Key battleground states present sturdy Republican favorability, with swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania favoring Republicans, whereas Michigan leans Democrat.
General, Republicans are favored to manage the presidency and the Senate, whereas Democrats are favored to manage the Home.
Kamala Harris at present has a 96% probability of being the Democratic nominee, with Michelle Obama trailing at 2%. Josh Shapiro leads the Democratic vice presidential nominee race with 32%, adopted intently by Mark Kelly at 29%.
Bettors give Kamala Harris a 60% probability of successful the favored vote, whereas Trump holds a 38% probability.
