The Bitcoin Core payment estimator doesn’t intention to supply the minimal doable feerate to be included inside N blocks. It goals to supply the minimal feerate comparable to one has a excessive diploma of confidence the transactions might be mined inside N blocks.
It subsequently tends to typically give the next estimate than seems to have been mandatory on any specific transaction. However it additionally supplies a assure [0] that over time a excessive share of the transactions created with the advisable feerate may have been mined inside the required N blocks.
Bitcoin enthusiats typically use mempool-based estimates to attempt to reduce the charges and have a tendency to view this assure as pointless. It is because they perceive how Bitcoin works and may address a transaction typically taking longer than mandatory to substantiate (or use strategies comparable to RBF). They have a tendency to miss it is a vital property for individuals who do not need to be Bitcoin consultants and simply need their cash to work reliably.
That mentioned:
- A cost-effective mode can be utilized with
estimatesmartfeeas a substitute of the default conservative mode. By buying and selling off some reliability, this mode is extra conscious of brief time period drops within the prevailing payment market. - A dialogue was lately began on the Bitcoin Core Github repository about how the accuracy of the payment estimator might be improved.
[0]: it is nonetheless an estimation. It solely ensures as a lot as an estimation can.
