Vice President Kamala Harris overtook former President Donald Trump’s odds of profitable in Michigan and Wisconsin on prediction market Polymarket.
If Harris wins the 2 swing states, the state of Pennsylvania will turn into the deciding consider who wins the US presidential election.
Present odds
The chances took a pointy flip in favor of Harris in two out of six “battleground states” following the publication of a CNN ballot performed by SRSS on Oct. 31, which confirmed no clear benefit for both candidate.
Consequently, Harris’ odds to win Wisconsin and Michigan grew by 5% and 6%, respectively. Moreover, her total odds of profitable the whole election grew from 2.3% to 39.6% however remained considerably under Trump’s 60.3%.
Trump has a 22.2% lead over Harris in total odds. He additionally has a 14% lead in Pennsylvania and a big margin within the remaining three swing states: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
Moreover, a report revealed by Galaxy Analysis reveals that Trump is main in 18 completely different venues, various from proprietary fashions to prediction markets. Nonetheless, the info revealed that the majority outcomes are tight, with the previous president dropping its lead on 13 out of 18 venues assessed.
Polymarket hits new information
The heated US elections are driving Polymarket to interrupt new information. In October, the prediction market reached 220,682 distinctive merchants, a 174% development in comparison with September, based on a Dune Analytics dashboard created by consumer rchen8.
Furthermore, the month-to-month buying and selling quantity reached almost $2.3 billion, hovering 353% in a single month. That is seemingly tied to election-betting exercise, as 85% of the exercise on Polymarket final month was associated to this matter.
Just lately, manipulation rumors on Polymarket started to unfold, with researchers from Chaos Labs stating in an Oct. 30 Fortune report that the platform is “rife with pretend wash buying and selling.”
Nonetheless, these claims weren’t confirmed, with voices resembling Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction market Kalshi, arguing that prediction markets’ odds aren’t manipulated.
